Corinthians’ Situation: Maximum Alert in the Brasileirão

Well, folks, Corinthians’ situation in the Campeonato Brasileiro is worrying. Or should we use the word desperate instead? I’m not the only one saying this—no! After the loss to Flamengo at the Maracanã, Timão notched up its fifth straight defeat in the competition, and the numbers started to look scary.

What the Numbers Say

The mathematicians from the Department of Mathematics at UFMG have the red light on. They calculated that Corinthians now has 14,6% chance of being relegated to Série B. And the craziest part is that this figure has risen abruptly.

At the end of August, the same UFMG was talking about only 5,2% risk of relegation. In two weeks—simply 14 days—that chance nearly tripled! And if we go back a bit further in time, the situation was even more comfortable: a survey by the Chance de Gol website indicated just 0,8% risk of relegation about a month ago.

In short: Corinthians was in a comfortable position, but now it’s plummeting down the table. Every new loss only reinforces this math and makes the fans realize that the Z-4, which seemed so far away, is now, yes, on the radar. To make matters worse, UFMG already lists Timão as the seventh most threatened team with relegation at the moment.

Scary Numbers

Here are the main relegation probabilities for the teams:

• Chapecoense: 99,03%
• Remo: 84,6%
• Internacional: 57,4%
• Grêmio: 46,1%
• Vasco: 39,3%
• Mirassol: 35,5%
• Corinthians: 14,6%
• Botafogo: 7%
• Vitória: 6,7%
• São Paulo: 6,2%
• Santos: 2%

What Does This Mean?

Of course, 14,6% is still far from meaning that Corinthians will actually be relegated, but let’s be honest: five straight defeats aren’t just a coincidence. If Timão doesn’t stop this free fall immediately, that percentage that used to be 0,8% went to 5,2% and now it’s already at 14,6%—it could rise even more in the next rounds.

The math has already sent the message, and it’s time for Corinthians to start giving the answer on the pitch. And you, what do you think about this situation? Let’s discuss!