Update on the Brazilian Championship: Title and Relegation Chances

UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais) updated the title and relegation odds in the Brazilian Championship after the 27th round that took place this weekend. Let’s see how things stand!

The Title Race

Flamengo secured an important win of 2 to 1 over Corinthians, but even so, it still saw its statistical advantage over Palmeiras shrink. Before the round, the Rubro-Negro had 67,1% title chances, while Palmeiras was at 27,5%. Now, after the matches, the odds are 66,2% for Flamengo and 32,1% for Palmeiras. The gap dropped from 39,6% to 34,1%!

Currently, Flamengo and Palmeiras are in a tight duel, separated by just one point on the table:

• Flamengo: 57 points (defeated Corinthians)
• Palmeiras: 56 points (winner of the derby against São Paulo)

Both teams are the only ones with real title chances.

What Happened with the Other Teams

On the other hand, Athletico-PR and Fluminense saw their distances from the top increase. Furacão drew 3 to 3 with Coritiba and stayed in third place, with 46 points. Meanwhile, Tricolor das Laranjeiras lost to Atlético-MG and settled in fourth place with 45 points.

And what about Corinthians? The team suffered its fifth consecutive defeat, making matters even tougher at the bottom of the table. Alvinegro’s relegation risk rose from 8,9% to 14,6% after the loss to Flamengo, keeping the team in the 13th position with 32 points, four points ahead of the relegation zone.

The Fight Against the Z4

Speaking of relegation, the news is not quite as bad for Vasco and Internacional. In a head-to-head duel in the battle against the drop, the Cruz-Maltino beat the Grêmio by 2 to 1, while the Colorado also beat the Chapecoense at Arena Condá, with the same scoreline. Even so, both teams still sit in the Z4, with 28 points, but they managed to reduce their chances of dropping. The updated percentages are:

• Vasco: 39,3%
• Internacional: 57,4%

Meanwhile, Chapecoense remains at the bottom, facing a dramatic relegation risk of more than 99%. Remo, in turn, has the second-highest relegation chances, but will play a crucial match against Bahia this Monday (14), at 20h, at Arena Fonte Nova. Right behind them are Inter, Grêmio, Vasco, and Mirassol.

So, there are only a few rounds left until the end of the championship! Which team are you rooting for?